The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan can be understood as the tangle of three threads—governance, terrorism, and geopolitics. Any way out for the country would have to address and resolve the three.

Government

The Taliban held considerable control over Afghanistan during the time of the Islamic Emirate till 2001. After the downfall of the Taliban, the 2004 Afghan constitution established democratic tenets including the freedom of religion, speech and expression. In practice, however, these elections have regularly been fraught with accusations of corruption and ineffectiveness accompanied by claims of illegitimacy.

Nonetheless, the Taliban seem to be taking over districts at a swift pace and constituting their control over those areas. The Taliban’s idea of democracy and freedom of religion under sharia varies deeply from the ideal parameters preferred by western democracies. This is seen in the rhetoric portrayed by the Taliban in any of their statements, a recent example being that of its co-founder, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar—“We seek an Afghanistan that is independent, sovereign, united, developed and free—an Afghanistan with an Islamic system in which all people of the nation can participate without discrimination.” Apart from the differences of opinion, the Intra-Afghan Talks of September 2020 held in Qatar between the government and the Taliban have proved futile due to the reluctance of the Taliban to share power with the existing government.

A report by the U.S. intelligence community obtained and highlighted by the Wall Street Journal indicates that the government in Afghanistan could collapse and Kabul could be captured as soon as six months after the American withdrawal. Although the fact that Kabul is in the government's control, there are many other regions that the US forces have left as open wounds just to be scavenged and repurposed by the Taliban.

A stark example is Mazar-i-Sharif, the biggest city in the north and a significant power centre in its own right. Kandahar Airbase too has been occupied by the Taliban and undoubtedly will be used as their stronghold over the entire district. Bagram Airbase now remains vulnerable, open to Taliban occupation, considering that neither the United States has effectively looked after the proper handover of the base to the ANDSF nor is the ANDSF effective enough to curtail the Taliban. Afghan security forces often surrender without a fight, leaving their weapons and other American-supplied equipment to the Taliban who in turn may hand over the bounty to the Al-Qaida to commit further acts of terror.

Terrorism

Terrorism has been ever pervasive in the Afghan political sphere and is the reason why the US entered Afghanistan in the first place. During the US troop movement in the country, terrorism though prevalent was relatively meagre due to the constant intel support the US had offered the government and the ANDSF. Afghanistan remains a sanctuary for terrorists wishing to conduct transnational terrorism. Al-Qaida terrorists, especially their regional affiliate—Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)—sprawl throughout the region due to the relentless support of the Taliban. Sans the support of US boots on the ground, Al-Qaida will once again be able to establish its network in the world with assistance from the Taliban. The US exit can only provide impetus to the improvement of the nexus between Al-Qaida and the Taliban and the deterioration of the government’s ability to withhold the joint strength of the insurgents.

The aforementioned resurgence of the Al-Qaida was indicated by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns who testified to the Senate Intelligence Committee that the departure of US troops will pose a “significant risk” of resurgent terrorism in the region and will “diminish” the US government’s “ability to collect and act on threats” springing from Afghanistan.

Apart from the Taliban, Al-Qaida and the other insurgent groups, the Islamic State too wants to make its presence felt in the already turmoiled region through the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). Interestingly, the IS-K and the Al-Qaida are sworn polar enemies, though the perpetration of terror remains constant. This causes a multipolar war between all factions further worsening terror and instability making it difficult for the US to exit.

Foreign Actors

The exit of a power such as the United States from an unhinged region such as Afghanistan can only lead to the creation of a void to be possibly filled in by another foreign influencer to control the political dynamics of the area to their advantage and interest. In addition to this, countries around Afghanistan are closely monitoring the situation to make sure that the war does not spill over into their territories as well. Even though the US ensures a complete and unconditional exit from Afghanistan there will be no surprise if it continues to use covert forces in Afghanistan or its neighbouring countries to carry out crucial operations. These ins and outs of the ever-developing situation may lead to extensive foreign intrusion in Afghanistan putting its political future at risk.

The spilling over of the conflict especially holds good for the case of neighbouring China and Pakistan who are already apprehensive about the enormous advances made by the Taliban. Other countries including Russia, India, the Central Asian countries, Iran, and the Gulf States, support a peaceful exit of the US, but are concerned about the repercussions the collapse of the government will have on the Asian neighbourhood. Each of these countries considers themselves to be a stakeholder in the conflict and, therefore, try to bring about change which suits preference.

India too has played a role in the peace process due to its strategic location and has taken part in high-level peace talks. Understandably, India does not offer support for the Taliban and has provided the Afghan government with the required resources and aid. India has continuously reiterated its support for an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled peace process. Often, the propensity of China is to capitalise on any deteriorating situation with its bonhomie, Pakistan. Hence, India should consider keeping a watchful eye on the developments, especially on its border with Afghanistan, and the diplomatic efforts being made by China and Pakistan to undermine India’s position. All these instances are an aftermath of the callous US attempt to leave Afghanistan without guaranteeing the safety of neither the country nor its neighbours.

The intervention of the United States into Afghanistan is what brought this whole escapade of folly into existence in the first place and its exit should at the minimum be devoid of haste by safeguarding the protection of human rights. The DoD’s approach towards the South Asia Strategy in Afghanistan encompasses the “R4+S” concept—“regionalize, realign, reinforce, reconcile and sustain”. In accordance with this, the US Congress must offer oversight to the withdrawal and push the Biden administration to provide continued support to intra-Afghan negotiations and the Afghan government. The US should correspondingly develop a clear exit strategy that maintains support for such critical priorities such as humanitarian assistance. This at the same time should not trail the line of political interference. The exit plan needs to be coordinated with the assistance of both NATO allies and the key state actors in the region. Apart from this, the accountability of all the nations participating in the peace process should be warranted. The United States needs to understand the fact that too much change in too little time will be nothing but catastrophic for global geopolitics.

‍

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Standpoint India.