In a long-winded anti-climactic end of events, the troops of the Allied forces including those of the United States of America departed Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, bringing an end to the ubiquitous 19 years of US control over the base and its overall notorious presence in the country. The base was quite unceremoniously handed over to the Afghan Government, nonetheless, complying with the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan signed between the US and Taliban.

This evacuation occurred shortly following the US troop exit from the other airbase at Kandahar. The evacuation of the United States which was initiated through the Doha Accords, signed between former President Trump and the Taliban, is being continued by the Biden Administration, which has set September 11, 2021 as the date for the complete exit of the United States from the country. It is necessary to understand the implications the US exit will bring to the world at large and how the Afghan government would rebuild or ricochet.

History of the conflict

To comprehend the extent to which its exit will affect regional geopolitics and security, it is essential to gain insight into the circumstances under which the United States interfered in Afghanistan.

In the 1980s the United States offered support to insurgent groups in Afghanistan to resist the USSR occupation. This, however, blew up and brought about tumultuous repercussions which have persisted to date. The 9/11 attacks carried out by Al-Qaida is a very example of these disastrous consequences.

As a result of these attacks, the United States, along with its NATO allies, invaded Afghanistan as part of its multinational ‘War on Terror’ policy. It was of vital national interest to the US that the country was never again used as a haven from which terrorists could attack the United States. The ‘War on Terror’ had brought about a radical change in world geopolitics and international relations by foreshadowing a new phase in global security, human rights, international law and governance.

Afghanistan is often referred to as the graveyard of empires. This seems to be apt, observing that not only the US but several other countries have poured in billions of dollars in the form of troops, resources and aid into Afghanistan. The efforts to withdraw from Afghanistan have been futile year after year, which has lasted for around three full US Presidential terms. The opening of the Afghan Pandora’s Box has cost the United States around $815.7 billion, as stated in the Department of Defense’s 2020 report on war-fighting costs. According to the Costs of War project conducted by Brown University, the US has also spent a staggering total of $2.26 trillion on an array of expenses between 2001 and 2021 just in Afghanistan. Putting these numbers together, there’s no surprise President Biden would want the United States out of Afghanistan.

The current crisis

The exit of the US has certain nuanced short term and long-term repercussions—if the withdrawal is not carried out systematically, the regions’ power dynamics could snap back bringing it back to square one.

Former Acting Secretary of Defense under the Trump administration Christopher Miller had previously announced that the number of US forces had reached 2,500 on January 15, 2021. On April 14, 2021, President Joe Biden announced that the United States would begin a “final withdrawal” beginning on May 1, leaving behind no troops in the Afghan territories apart from those to safeguard the embassy.

There seem to be two disconcerting facts here—even despite the fact that President Biden had assured a smooth withdrawal, the situation seems to be too unstable to comfortably yet securely withdraw all troops by September. One of the main reasons for this is the fact that the Taliban has made a considerable gain in terms of territory and continues to receive support from Al-Qaida. This coupled with the insurgency perpetrated by the Islamic State subsidiary, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) in the Northern Regions has brought about a multifront asymmetrical battle within which the Afghan Socio-Political system is trapped.

Secondly, the Taliban, who quite visibly hold far more authority or power than the actual Afghan government, has accused the United States of breaching the February 2020 agreement and declared that the US decision to stay beyond May 1 “in principle opens the way for [The Taliban] to take every necessary countermeasure, hence the American side will be held responsible for all future consequences.” Consequently, the Taliban have now gained control over one-third of all the 421 districts and continue to engulf all major cities. Most recently, they have captured districts deserted by over 1000 fleeing Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) in the North-Eastern Badakhshan province as reported by Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security.

Reportedly, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wrote to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, “Even with the continuation of financial assistance from the United States to your forces after an American military withdrawal, I am concerned that the security situation will worsen and the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.” Despite this apprehension of the State Department, the US seems to be going forward with the plan of withdrawal placing the Afghan government in grave jeopardy.

The inability of the ANDSF to control these advances seems to indicate the neo-colonial attitude of the United States who wish to wash their hands of the muddle that is Afghanistan. If the United States forces recede too quickly due to the volatility of the situation, the Taliban will effortlessly use the unstable vacuum of the government to their advantage and reinstate Afghanistan into its former Islamic Emirate.