Times of adversity for mankind beckon practical demonstration of the high moral ground which is so often touted to be a western niche. While India has yet to mark its place in the first world countries, it certainly stands among the leading Covid vaccine exporters. This feat is not just in response to the pandemic; India is among the top five pharmaceutical exporters with a global share of nearly 4%.

As India continued to writhe in the clenches of the second wave, the government was faced with the self-imposed ‘obligation’ and ‘responsibility’ dilemmas—obligation towards deal promised outside and responsibility towards people back home. This article takes an account of the outcome of these simultaneous battles of India, and the ongoing quest for earning brownie points in different countries.

India's generous vaccine drive began in mid-January with Bhutan and Maldives, reiterating the 'Neighbourhood First' policy. Meanwhile, India's daily corona cases were nearing a possible climax, as was suggested by most experts. Notably, a Parliamentary Committee report was presented back in November 2020, warning of a looming second and third wave. A few reports expressing concern and skepticism over a 'complete victory' may have surfaced but were overshadowed by aspirations to see India lush with soft power. Such luminous expectations were quickly quenched with the second wave that wrecked India, the messiah herself. The ruling dispensation and its functionaries failed to identify the impending wave and the overwhelmed system proved too deficient to mitigate a catastrophe.

Serve thy Neighbour: Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Indian Ocean

Bangladesh which received the highest number of India-manufactured vaccines—10.3 million doses (including 3.3 million as a gift and 109 ambulances)—has seemingly curbed the current wave. While India and Bangladesh kick-started their 51st year of diplomacy on a great footing, the looming second wave in India has prevented export of two million doses of Covishield already purchased by Bangladesh. In light of this delay, it was forced to pivot to China's Sinopharm vaccine, which is no good news for India. Miscalculations in production of doses must not prove detrimental to the partnership, furthering visceral outrage on NRC regulations. Besides, China's ambassador to Bangladesh on his visit last week explicitly warned against warming up to the QUAD. Bangladesh will be chairing the Indian Ocean Rim Association in 2021 and having India by its side will surely help.

Myanmar which received 3.7 million Covishield jabs (1.7 million as a donation) from India, amidst a military coup, has reported minimal cases for a couple of months now. The vexed question of Rohingya refugees in the north-eastern states is further exacerbated with an added illegal influx of refugees sparked by the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. Parallelly, China has donated 500,000 doses to the junta. India's 'Vaccine Maitri' could prove useful in gaining an edge in this turmoil.

The Prime Minister's vision of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) was emphasised with the export drive to Seychelles (50,000 doses free of cost), Mauritius (400,000 doses, a quarter of which was free), and Maldives (3.12 million doses, a third of the doses free of cost). Our neighbours have long seen China as a convenient alternative to India. Early export to these countries in the Indian Ocean could be seen as a strategic move to strengthen India's image as a solid cushion for the islands.

When things go ‘South’: Brazil & the African continent

Brazil has so far received four million doses which include Bharat Biotech's Covaxin as well as SII-manufactured Covishield. Despite reservations raised by them regarding Covaxin's approvals, the Bolsonaro government began the inoculation drive at a glacial pace and is vying with the US and India as far as the highest Covid tally is considered. Brazil had previously cancelled a $20 million deal after its drug regulator Anvisa published a report claiming Bharat Biotech did not conform to good manufacturing practices. It has also signed a deal with China for ingredients of 25 million vaccines. Weeks later, Anvisa gave conditional approval to Covaxin, and is now due to get 4 million doses initially. Although Brazil and India share much in common, like Brazil's 'reciprocal multilateralism' and India's 'strategic autonomy' principles, their bilateral trade stands at a dismal $8 billion. It is the deep-pockets of China, which is its number one trade partner, that hinders a strong South-South Cooperation. The trials that India’s Covaxin had to go through in Brazil do not reflect well on India’s part.

Several African countries received the SII manufactured vaccines under the UN backed COVAX initiative for low/middle income group of countries. While the first doses were administered, the maximum 12-week gap before the second week may be breached due to the export ban imposed by India. The African Union has been forced to seek alternatives like Johnson & Johnson while Chinese vaccine donations continue to pour in slowly. China's growing footprint in the African continent is no match to India. The COVAX initiative would have been effective in creating an Indian appeal but has been stymied unfortunately. There lie tremendous opportunities in this continent for India, especially as a counter to China's elitist driven extraction of resources and debt-trapping tendency.

Right in the Middle: Afghanistan & Iran

Changing gears towards West Asia, where China has been trying to make inroads as a substitute to the departing USA, Vaccine Maitri donated 500,000 doses and dispatched 468,000 doses of Covishield to Afghanistan. Although India did manage to brand itself as a benevolent neighbour in the present circumstances, it was excluded from the UN Secretariat's 6+2+1 meeting and the extended ‘Troika’ in Russia in March this year. That said, at $3 billion, India is the largest development donor of Afghanistan and the state has acknowledged the significance of India’s role in the peace process. Since the ‘Ameri-ghan exit’, entities aplenty have shown interest in hosting Afghan-Taliban Peace talks as the Taliban shows no signs of ceasing ties with the Al-Qaeda and Pakistan's ISI, continuing with violence, stalling the Doha agreements. Since India staunchly stands for an Afghanistan-owned, state-led peace process, it could milk the Vaccine Maitri to continue the proactive participation and initiation as observed during the intra-Afghan Doha talks, in order to ensure stability in the region, given the coinciding geopolitical threat from the deep-state Pakistan and the overarching Chinese influence.

On the other hand, its neighbour Iran has already seen a considerable shift towards China. Since Iran has explicitly banned vaccines from the UK and the US, its inoculation requirements was fulfilled majorly from China (1,650,000), and Russia (720,000), whereas India's deal merely acted as a token, bringing 125,000 doses for Iran. Banking on the opportunity of US departure from the region, India should regain lost ground with Iran, having suffered scepticism on account of India's close ties with the USA.

The West Wing: the UK & Canada

Faced with the ferocity of the second wave, India halted the export of another five million Covishield doses to the UK which has already vaccinated half the population with at least one dose, thanks to the first despatch of five million doses by India. This glitch has prompted the country to criticise the ban as India's 'vaccine nationalism'. On the flip side, medical experts in the UK are of the view that Covishield may be less effective against the Indian variant. Canada (received 500,000 doses) too, is reconsidering the age brackets to administer the Oxford vaccine citing reports of blood clotting in other nations. Additionally, UK and Canada were among the first ones to oppose the TRIPS waiver, floated by India and South Africa. It is quite ironic of the UK to demand scaling up of production to fulfil its vaccine deployment and yet create obstacles in the temporary waiver of Intellectual Property Rights on Covid vaccines and drugs. The Biden administration is making a welcome policy change, here, in its strong pro-IPR stand, voicing support for a temporary waiver, though stalwarts like Bill Gates, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johson have spoken against such surrender.

What’s the cost?

Vaccine Maitri may have been initiated in good faith of keeping our ethos of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' in mind, but who has footed the bill? When the Supreme Court posed questions, the Centre responded by saying, "Entire globe is a unit during a pandemic. (sic)" The idea was to ‘break the chain of transmission’ in the countries with high-risk population, thereby shielding India as well. Holding true to this objective, more than 80% of India's vaccine grants were shared by the neighbouring countries including the UN Peacekeepers. Considering the overall export inclusive of commercial deals, the neighbours claimed one-third of the share. Further, the Centre invoked another dimension to justify the export and its decision to opt for staggered immunisation. It said both were done to avoid disproportionality between the production of COVID-19 vaccines and the country’s “available" health infrastructure and manpower. "Simultaneous vaccination without priority classification would have led to commotion”, the Centre told the Supreme Court, implying that merely the excess was exported. There is some solace here since those who govern at least shamefully admit the inadequacy of our health infrastructure.

Haphazard strategic calculus to vaccinate humans within and beyond the borders has done little to corroborate the PR of the MEA outside and the PMO inside. The narrative floating in the public is, 'how could the government anticipate a wave so mammoth it would wipe away thousands every day?' If anything, it was indeed the government's job to know and to let the people know when the graph broke the declining curve towards the end of February. The very same incumbent ordered strict lockdowns immediately at the onset of the first wave but failed miserably this time owing to other political preoccupations.

Hordes of people have been left scrambling for anti-Covid utilities to save their kin. In these woeful circumstances, more than 40 countries including major powers such as the US, Russia, France, Germany as also our neighbours have vowed to expedite aid for India to limit the meltdown. The seeds of Vaccine Maitri sown in the earlier stages have visibly borne fruit.

If only the projections concerning vaccine production and domestic immunisation had been far-sighted, India could still strut with a flex on the global diplomacy front. Alas, someone's loss is another's gain in the battleground of vaccine diplomacy but it hurts more when the gain is China's.